Collapse of Black Sea grain deal poses a massive global threat

 Officials in Ukraine are

accusing Russia

of grossly violating

international obligations.

That comes

after the Russian defense ministry said

all ships

sailing into ports in the Black Sea

would be considered military ships.

The Ukraine Foreign Ministry

went on to accused Russia

of trying to increase world

food prices through its withdrawal

from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

What will be the impact

then on the global food supply?

I want to get our guests for that.

Joining us

now is Matthew Hollingworth,

the WFP Ukraine representative.

Matthew, really appreciate you

being with us this evening on the show.

I'm sure you have been seeing

you've seen the reporting

you would have

heard as well from your teams

on the ground

that the last three nights

that we have been showing

here of you

is Russia really pummeling the south

Odessa Nikolayev and targeting

Specifically, says

President Zelensky,

the country support infrastructure.

What impact

is this having on grain storage

and any possible shipments here

I mean, clearly

since the decision

by the Russian Federation

earlier this week

to pull out of the Black Sea initiative,

we have been looking very carefully

at the impact of our operations globally

and our operations here in Ukraine.

And the three key problems with Russia

pulling out,

terminating their involvement

in the Black Sea initiative.

The first of all, of course,

is that we relied

on the Black Sea initiative

to move 725,000 tons of food

to people

living in places like Afghanistan

and Yemen, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan,

and so on, countries

that desperately need

that food assistance.

And this was a country

where we could guarantee

on a high quality,

competitive market price, food

and it was the largest single

sourcing nation

last year for the World Food Program.

Despite the conflict,

despite the invasion.

So that's going to leave a massive hole

in our operations

of trying to get food to to,

you know, people around the world

that desperately need it.

There's 345 million people

living in severe food insecurity

right now.

So that shouldn't be underestimated.

The second thing, obviously,

is the impact

globally sorry,

on the food prices and availability.

We've seen an 8% rise

on both sides of the Atlantic

in the last 24 hours

on the price of wheat.

That's going to hit

a lot of poor people around the world

in their pocket.

It will mean global food insecurity

if those prices stick

and if they stick at that level.

But obviously what worries me is,

as the representative here

inside Ukraine,

is the devastating impact

on the farming economy of this country.

It's 15%.

Farmers are 15% of the employment

workforce of this country.

If they don't farm,

if there's no incentive to farm

because they can't get their produce

to market,

then it's going to have a long

lasting impact on this nation

as well as the rest of the world.

And that's just part of the food systems

truck drivers won't be having any work.

Stevedores in the ports

and all of the other food systems

activities that support

an agricultural economy

is important to this

all suffering because of this decision.

They're also interconnected

to focus on your on your first point,

the hole

it was going to leave in your operation

What are the options there, Matthew?

And then

to try to get the grain moving again,

do you believe, given everything

we've seen in the last few days,

the Russia will return to the agreement?

Or are you looking

option B, option C here

We are a humanitarian organization.

We were

we're used to working

in the most complex,

chaotic environments.

We've always got a plan B and a plan C.

What we hope, though, is that we can see

the world come together

to get the Russian Federation

back to the negotiating table.

I think, secretary general,

I made it very clear in his speech

earlier this week

that many of the issues

that the Russian Federation raised

have actually been part

or all were almost met.

So we want them to come back to the table

because it's not just about Ukraine.

It's about global food security.

And none of us in a time when we see,

you know,

weather extremes, climate extremes

around the world.

And we are still at a ten year

high in terms of food costs

around the world.

We can't afford to lose as important

a source and country

a food producer as this

from the global market.

Do you know Matthew, whether the U.N.

is already

talking is in conversation with President

Putin, with Russia to try and

bring him back on board?

You know, if these conversations are

happening behind the scenes,

Absolutely.

Certain the

United Nations

is not going to give up on this issue

and will continue

everything it can

to try and find a result to ensure

the safety of vessels

in the northwestern part of the Black Sea

to ensure that food can continue

to leave this country.

If we will certainly have other

options in terms of solidarity

lanes, in terms of other

routes out of the country.

But none of them are going to replace

what we've currently lost.

But it's only a few days.

The market still is jittery.

We need to see how the rest of the world

actually recovers in terms of the market,

whether it can stabilize.

And we need to have

a little bit of time yet

to get these actors back together

and negotiating

and coming to an agreement.

Speaking of actors in negotiating here,

I was speaking, Matthew,

to one of the negotiators

behind the Green Deal

and this is what he told me yesterday.

Have a listen to this.

They will probably

find it hard to walk back,

so they will probably only agree

to humanitarian shipments.

I think the World Food Program

could could step in.

I think if Russia would agree to that,

so that at least, you know,

the world's most needy

people in the world's most food

short countries would get

supplies from Ukraine,

which is such a big contributor

to the grain market.

And Matthew,

I mean, David Harland was pretty

pessimistic when I spoke to him yesterday

about Russia coming back on board.

What do you make then of this idea

that Russia may only agree

to humanitarian shipments

and the WFP

would probably have to step in?

Is that part of the other considerations

that you are looking at?

You think are being talked about here

I mean, from from our

perspective of the 33 million

tons of food

that managed to get out of Ukraine

since last

July through the Black Sea initiative,

20% of it went to the global south,

and that was trading

that was through normal

economic agreements between those nations

and this nation.

The humanitarian assistance that went out

is very, very important.

But we can't underestimate the importance

of global availability,

global accessibility because of Ukraine.

So I think we need to push harder

than than

simply only having a humanitarian

delivery system

through some sort of partial agreement.

We need more than that.

If we're going to actually achieve

and continue

to achieve some form of stability

when the world already is seeing

just enormous,

enormous levels of food insecurity.

I think Hollingworth

really appreciate you taking the time

to speak to us this evening, Matthew.

Thank you very much.