A new snapshot of Republican voters
likely to participate
in the first in the nation
New Hampshire
primary in New Hampshire right now
according to this poll.
Donald Trump
holds a 14 point lead over
Florida Governor
Ron DeSantis that's 37% to 23%.
This is a new poll
from the University of New Hampshire
Survey Center.
South Carolina Senator
Tim Scott is in third place.
He is 8%,
followed by former New Jersey Governor
Chris Christie and North
Dakota Governor Doug Burgum at 6% each.
Vivek Ramaswamy
and for South
former South
Carolina Governor
Nikki Haley are both at 5%,
with all others at 1% or below.
Let's discuss.
So Iowa Trump has a double digit lead.
But but
Santos in the hunt is in the hunt there.
And it's a lot smaller
that this lead in New Hampshire
that we see in national polls
and the state by states
are far more important
than the national poll.
This also suggests
that two thirds
of the people
in New Hampshire, Republicans
in New Hampshire, don't want Trump.
This is still very much
a competitive contest.
We talk about this all the time,
but this is why the ground game
is so significant.
This is why these candidates,
the whole game is meeting
as many voters
in these early states as possible.
I just looked up the amount of people
that turned out in 2020 in New Hampshire
in the Republican
primary it's about 150,000 people in Iowa
in the Republican caucus in 2020
that's about 32,000 people.
So when you have the electorate
that small in these early states
I mean you know
these candidates can really just
you know
spend as much time as possible
there meet as many people there
and there could be surprises
And what do you make of this.
Two thirds
not in the Trump column
as of right now
in New Hampshire among Republicans.
It's a poll, Jake. I don't.
Maybe I'm just an old song
I don't think anything's changed.
I think this is Trump's nomination
until somebody takes it from them.
It was a great interview
with DeSantis this week, but even him,
I don't see
any of these candidates
trying to beat Donald Trump.
He's going to be indicted
and look at none of them
are attacking him for that.
Well, Chris Christie is in.
Chris Christie doesn't count
because he really doesn't
have a chance to win.
I'm talking about the candidates
who have a shot.
None of them are attacking Trump.
They're all waiting.
It's weird.
They're all waiting for something
to happen to Trump.
Yeah.
I think it's a mistake
to dismiss them too
early in the process, but
that's just to dismiss him.
Chris Christie or all of these candidates
all these candidates.
Francesca's Tim Scott in third place
in this poll
superPAC supporting him
just announced a $40 million ad campaign
that's the largest booked
by any candidate so far.
If one perceives DeSantis as kind of like
being stuck and I'm not saying I do
but do you think there's an opening here
for Tim Scott?
Well, he certainly has a lot of resources
to be able to continue to compete.
And that's not.
Not everyone can say
the same exact thing.
You're saying some of those candidates,
like Asa
Hutchinson, who's down in this poll,
you know, they had him
hovering at almost 0%.
He didn't
bring in nearly anywhere
close to the same kind of haul
that some of these other candidates did.
When you're looking at
what Tim Scott has cash on hand.
He again,
he would be able to compete
in all three of these states
and and continue
into those Super Tuesday states.
One thing about the Trump
numbers in that poll, though,
is that the people who are with him,
three quarters of them say
that they are with him.
He's their guy.
They're sticking with him.
And so that, I think, is significant.
Also, though,
he has dropped by five points
since April.
In that poll, voters,
you see Ron DeSantis, his numbers
staying essentially.
Even so, it's not Ron DeSantis.
Who's losing support in New Hampshire.
It's Donald Trump. Interesting.
Can I just say one thing on this?
The reason
why this is still anyone's race,
I do think it's Donald
Trump's race to lose
but is because Iowa and New Hampshire
rarely like to do the same thing
in a primary.
So even if Donald Trump
wins in the Iowa primary,
Iowa primary
or caucus
it does
make it hard for folks to get momentum.
But New Hampshire is known
to kind of push back and say, but we want
and what this poll, six out of ten
New Hampshire
in saying that they don't want to
actually support Donald Trump.
I do think it gives opportunity for folks
if they can stay in the race that long.
I heard a lot of conservatives
praising DeSantis
for stepping
outside of the conservative media bubble
and doing the CNN interview.
And one of the things that's interesting
about media bubbles
and look,
there are liberal ones
or conservative ones, etc., etc.,
is that sometimes you might say things
and you're miscommunicated.
And let me explain.
Marjorie Taylor
Greene gave a speech the other day.
The conservative firebrand MAGA
extraordinaire from Georgia.
And in her speech,
she talked about how Joe Biden
was trying to finish what LBJ did,
finish what FDR did.
Now in her bubble
that automatically means
horrible, bad FDR.
Worst guy in the world,
but to the rest of the world.
FDR is considered a great president.
So Biden did something interesting.
His campaign did something interesting,
and they turned it into an
ad and take a look
Joe Biden had the largest
public investment
and social infrastructure
and environmental programs.
That is actually finishing
what FDR started that LBJ expanded on.
And Joe Biden
is attempting
to complete programs
to address education,
medical care, urban
problems, rural poverty, transportation,
Medicare, Medicaid, labor unions.
And he still is working on it.
Like you said, urban problems.
Urban problems.
But whatever do you mean by that?
Pretty brilliant. Brilliant.
And it is
telling that
that is someone
who is running in a general election.
He is saying,
if you think that the Republican Party
is too extreme,
your own folks,
you know, they misused
two words a little bit,
but it was brilliant.
Come over.
We are doing things
that the average American
find around the economy, around
so many issues
that people find important.
I thought it was well done.
And I think everyone should give a tip,
a hat tip to the Biden campaign.
She could
I mean, she could have been more clear
if she was trying to
if she was trying
to speak outside the bubble.
She was trying to say, like,
we don't believe in big government,
like FDR did like that.
But she's
speaking so much, preaching
so much to the choir
that she just and at that event, Jake,
she was purely speaking
to the Republican Party base
at that event because they ate it up,
but it served
it served right into Joe Biden's
strategy right now,
which partly is to cut things
that Republicans are saying,
turn them into
ad put it on air and put money behind it.
I don't think that one's running on line
right now,
but that is broadly
what their strategy is.
While he continues
to focus on the things
that he wants to focus on as president,
in the business of being president.
Yeah, that's trolling
more than it is an actual
ad by at least at this point.
But at this point. At this point.
But that is largely
what their strategy is right now
is to let Republicans
say what they're going to say
in this race.
I mean, it illustrates that we live
in two different Americas, basically,
and the same could be said of the left.
You know, you could play back something
that someone says on the left
and it'll get worse.
APPLAUSE And then you could play it
for right wing audience
and they might be horrified So,
yeah, just just illustrates
we're living in. Oh, it does.
I mean, I could totally imagine
some Democratic congressman
talking
about how important it is for Foushee
and Christopher Wray.
And like all these people that right
wingers consider to be bad guys,
you know,
to be given power and respected
and this and that
and the right wing
would do the same thing.
They would do the same thing.
It was a brilliant commercial.
And again, this is Biden's secret sauce.
He needs to stay above all of this
and speak to most Americans.
Quick question.
I do wonder
I did wonder what you thought
when I asked
Governor DeSantis
about the possible indictment
and he said, quote, that
he hopes it isn't.
He this is not the quote.
I hope it doesn't happen.
He said something like that, quote,
I don't think it would be
good for the country.
What did you think of that?
Well, you said
the question, Jake, was perfect
because you said,
what if you see
evidence of criminality, evidence
of criminality.
Oh, and he just wouldn't even touch that.
Yeah.
Which I thought was really disappointing.
But but it makes sense politically.
I asked it twice.
Evidence of criminality.
You said that word twice.
All right.
Thanks. Thanks for paying attention.
Thanks to one and all for being here.
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